Sensex Jumps 472 Points To 72,382, Nifty Ends At 22,556 As ITC Rallies 5% And Crude Oil Eases

The Indian stock market bounced back strongly on Monday after four straight days of losses. The BSE Sensex (the 30-stock index of the Bombay Stock Exchange) climbed 472.77 points, or 0.66%, to close at 72,382.47, while the NSE Nifty 50 (the 50-stock index of the National Stock Exchange) added 133.80 points, or 0.60%, to end at 22,555.75. If you were checking your portfolio on your phone through the day, you probably saw green across most of your holdings, especially if you own ITC, any PSU bank stock, or an FMCG (fast-moving consumer goods, think soaps, biscuits, cigarettes) name.

Two things did the heavy lifting today. First, crude oil prices cooled off a bit, which is always good news for a country like India that imports most of its oil. Second, the rupee held its ground against the US dollar even as global cues turned friendlier, with traders betting the US Federal Reserve is less likely to raise interest rates again this month. ITC was the single biggest reason the Sensex moved as much as it did, rallying over 5% on the back of a ratings upgrade from a global brokerage, and that one stock alone pulled a lot of the index higher.

Market At A Glance

Note: Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 closing levels above are estimated from the previous close and today’s confirmed percentage move, since an official closing print for these two indices was not available from sources at the time of publishing.

Why The Market Moved

If you are new to investing, here is the simple version of today’s story. Crude oil is priced in US dollars per barrel globally, and India buys most of what it needs from other countries. So when oil prices fall, India’s oil import bill comes down, which is good for the rupee and good for inflation at home. Today, Brent crude (the global benchmark for oil prices) slipped to around $102.52 a barrel as Middle Eastern countries ramped up exports and some G7 countries floated the idea of releasing oil from their strategic reserves. Both of these mean more oil supply in the market, which usually pulls prices down.

This matters for your money in a roundabout way. A cheaper oil import bill means India does not need to spend as many dollars, which takes some pressure off the rupee. A steadier rupee means imported goods, and anything that depends on imports, does not get more expensive overnight. It also gives the RBI (Reserve Bank of India) a little more breathing room on inflation, which is one of the big things it watches before deciding on interest rates at its MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) meetings.

The other big driver was global cues from the US. Expectations that the US Fed will hold off on a rate hike this month eased some of the pressure on emerging market currencies like the rupee, and that optimism also lifted sentiment on Dalal Street, as traders here often take their cue from how Wall Street and Asian markets are behaving overnight.

Which Sectors Held Up, And Which Didn’t

FMCG was the star performer today, up 1.8%, almost entirely thanks to ITC’s sharp rally. Banking also had a good day, with both Nifty Bank and Nifty PSU Bank in the green, as easing bond yields globally tend to help bank stocks. IT stocks, on the other hand, barely moved, ending nearly flat, while Pharma and Healthcare were the only sectors that properly fell today, down 0.74% and 1.00% respectively. If you are holding IT, Pharma or healthcare stocks, today was a quiet-to-slightly-red day for you, while FMCG and banking investors had reason to smile.

Today’s Top Movers

Top gainers on the Nifty 50:

ITC topped the gainers’ list by a wide margin after a global brokerage upgraded the stock to a “Buy” rating, with the stock also getting support from continued optimism around its hotels demerger. BSE Ltd, the stock exchange company itself, surged over 4% on strong trading volumes. Shriram Finance and Bajaj Finance, both NBFC (non-banking financial company) names, also had a strong session as lower bond yields make borrowing and lending businesses look more attractive.

Top losers on the Nifty 50:

IT major HCL Technologies was the biggest loser of the day, falling close to 3.7% and dragging the broader IT index down with it, even though the sector overall ended only marginally lower. HDFC Bank, India’s largest private lender by market value, also slipped, along with paints major Asian Paints and two hospital stocks, Max Healthcare and Apollo Hospitals, as profit booking hit some of the recent outperformers in the healthcare space.

What FIIs and DIIs Were Doing

You will often see FII and DII numbers mentioned in market reports, so here is a quick explainer. FIIs, or Foreign Institutional Investors, are big investors based outside India, such as foreign mutual funds and pension funds, who buy and sell Indian stocks. DIIs, or Domestic Institutional Investors, are Indian institutions like mutual funds, insurance companies (think LIC) and banks doing the same thing, often using the money that flows in every month through investors’ SIPs (Systematic Investment Plans in mutual funds).

Today’s (5 October) official FII/DII cash-segment figures were not out at the time of publishing this article, as this data is usually released by the exchanges later in the evening. Here are the most recent confirmed figures, with dates clearly marked:

The pattern over the last few sessions has been consistent: FIIs have been steady net sellers in the cash market, pulling out roughly ₹9,500 crore to ₹10,150 crore a day, while DIIs have been net buyers each time, absorbing most of that selling and then some. This is a trend you will have noticed if you follow the market regularly this year, domestic money, a lot of it from mutual fund SIPs, has been cushioning the market every time FIIs have turned sellers. We will update this figure once today’s official data is released.

Oil, The Rupee, And Global Cues

Brent crude (December futures) eased to around $102.52 a barrel, while US WTI crude (November futures) traded near $90.66 a barrel, both cooling off as higher exports from Middle Eastern producers and talk of G7 countries releasing strategic reserves pointed to more oil supply hitting the market. For India, which imports close to 85% of its crude oil needs, every dollar that oil prices fall genuinely helps, it means fewer dollars going out to pay for imports, which in turn supports the rupee and keeps a lid on fuel-driven inflation.

The rupee had a mixed but broadly steady day against the US dollar. It opened around ₹96.22, about 10 paise stronger than Thursday’s close near ₹96.32, helped by the softer crude oil prices and reduced odds (down to roughly 20%) of a US Fed rate hike this month. But a strong US dollar, trading near a 17-month high, and elevated US Treasury bond yields kept the rupee from running too far, and it eventually settled back closer to the ₹96.30 per dollar mark by the end of the day. The RBI continued to be present in the forex market during the session, a step it regularly takes to prevent sharp, disorderly moves in the rupee. On the MCX (Multi Commodity Exchange of India), gold futures slipped 0.34% to ₹1,49,880 per 10 grams, while silver futures gained 0.93% to ₹2,27,978 per kg.

What To Watch Tomorrow

For tomorrow’s session, keep an eye on crude oil prices, since any reversal in the recent easing trend could quickly change the mood, especially for oil marketing companies and the rupee. Traders will also be watching whether the Nifty can hold above the 22,350 support level that many desks are flagging, with 22,700 seen as the next hurdle on the upside if the rally continues. IT stocks are worth watching closely too, since the sector has been the weak link over the past few sessions and any further US dollar strength or soft commentary from global tech peers could add to the pressure. On the macro front, global cues from US jobs data and any fresh developments on the geopolitical front in the Middle East will likely continue to set the tone, as they did today. This is general market information for you to stay informed, and not investment advice, so please do your own research or speak with a qualified advisor before making any trading or investment decisions.